Binding: Paperback
Dewey Decimal Number: 332.024
EAN: 9780684853109
ISBN: 0684853108
Label: Simon & Schuster
Manufacturer: Simon & Schuster
Number Of Items: 1
Number Of Pages: 320
Publication Date: 1999-10-14
Publisher: Simon & Schuster
Studio: Simon & Schuster

THE GREAT BOOM IS COMING

How and where we work and live is about to change drastically. In The Roaring 2000s, Harry S. Dent, Jr., one of the world's most prescient forecasters, turns his visionary eye to the full spectrum of possibilities that will follow in the wake of a burgeoning turn-of-the-century economy. Dent identifies opportunities, explores trends, and makes concrete predictions. Among them are:

A Dow that will reach at least 21,500 and possibly 35,000 by the year 2008

The rise of "gazelles," small- to medium-sized, high-growth companies that are now creating most of the jobs in the country

The Eight Critical Technology Trends Changing How We Live and Work

The New American Dream -- why changing technologies could mean a return to small-town living, and the nine types of boomtowns that will offer the highest quality of life

The New Network Corporation, which features leadership at the center rather than management from the top, and human browser teams that represent customers by connecting them directly to servers or specialized products and experts. These organizations are fast, responsive and entrepreneurial

The Seven Principles of Successful Investing

For anyone who wants to take advantage of these invaluable, emerging opportunities. The Roaring 2000s is a necessary guidebook to a not-so-distant future.

Customer Rating:
Summary: SOSO. There's better books out there; but worse too.
Comment: Some fairly good analysis on markets and trends and things. But abyssmally and tragically ignorant on some of the most important base issues surrounding money, banking, monetary policy, and inflation. For the market review and analysis, for the cost of used books today, I'd recommend not paying more than 7 or 8 bucks at the very most. But when you get to the parts of the book where he talks about money or inflation directly, skip those sections.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: The inflation myth. If you see inflation today plan on massive growth tommorow.
Comment: The Inflation myth is that it results from rapid growth. Inflation is the result of radical new technologies and the entrance of the young new generations that bring them to the workforce. Other than the war periods, the greatest periods of inflation have coincided with major periods of technology innovation: Inflation wave following the crusades, another massive wave following the capitalism revolution; and the biggest wave emerging caused from the information revolution.

Inflation is a sign of progress in the making, not the destruction of the monetary system or decay of the moral fiber. Neither political policy of various Presidents nor the monetary policy of the fed significantly influence inflation, instead inflation is the economy's means for financing an economic revolution. The higher the inflation the greater the economic revolution to follow and during inflation money is tight, so demand for the money will be strong. It takes a massive investment to launch an economic revolution. The launch of the economic revolution corresponds with the growth of the labor force, whose spending patterns as group are very predictable. The labor forces expands during the innovation wave that occurs when a new generation enters the job market. There are three forces that influence inflation : 1. new technologies force organizations to retool to remain competitive and requires capital investment 2. the new generation launches many new companies, which require an infusion of capital before they become self-supporting 3. the new generation elevates the demand for commercial infrastructures-from office space to factories to warehouses for work, and malls and store of all kinds for personal shopping and entertainment-which require a huge capital investment by businesses and government.

In Phase I, inflation occurs when investors are saving more then they are spending. Higher interest rates fuel the propensity to spend. The business sector's need for cash flow imposes an inflation tax on the consumer. New businesses needing to raise capital can not finance large debts because they have not yet stabilized and demonstrated a predictable growth pattern. High inflation forces debt financing through venture capital. Inflation moves higher because production increases have not yet been realized adoption of new technologies that will increase productivity. As the new technology companies begin to grow, financing begins to ease. Inflation drops as finance and investment grow. The companies find it easier to get credit and loans and so they borrow more to finance their growth and retool.

In Phase II, in a booming economy and falling inflation rates consumers are spending and borrowing money, so government does not feel compelled to raise tax rates. The money government needs to produce from the growing infrastructure and finance transition into the new economy. As the new economy emerges debt rises to finance the growth, inflation rates fall, and productivity rates remain low and improving.

In Phase III, productivity surges as the new technologies move mainstream, following the S-curve Pattern. Business organizations leverage the new technologies to increase productivity, wages, and profits. The high profits in the new growth companies create high cash flow for investment and growth with less need for equity or debt financing.

Based on inflation patterns, productivity, and labor force trends a massive boom for the next four years will become a reality. The boom will not be sustained and a prolonged period of time of 10-20 years of economic slowdown will causes surges in unemployment, but eventually 3% of the new growth companies will create a surge in employment, profits, and innovations. The real revolution will not be technology but a return to a focus on the customer, his preferences, his smart card info, and global sharing of this information between companies. Frontline consultants will use back end server data to bring the best opinions for the consumer depending on their situation. The organzational network will change the infrastructure, efficiency, and value companies will bring to the customer. Companies that do not adapt will not be competitive and sales indicators will testify against them.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: Just Telling People What They Want To Hear
Comment: The "It's the 2000's and everything is going to be great because nothing can go wrong" theme was the opposite of what I was looking for.

I'm interested in books that give solid detailed steps to take when preparing for your financial future and this book seems to have a "don't worry about it" kind of tone. I found it pretty worthless. As if he just wrote a book that told people what they wanted to hear in order to get them to by the book.

(...)

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Customer Rating:
Summary: Pandering to the "greed" in all of us...
Comment: Readers would be better served by reading "The Intelligent Asset Allocator", which has the same core recommendations with regard to saving and investing, but much harder data on asset allocation (which provides >85% of the explanatory variable in overall portfolio returns according to most academic studies), following those recommendations instead, and then going out and just living their lives instead of vainly seeking some "new life around the corner, if only I had another $(fill in the blanks) million" by spending their hard-earned money on these investment book du jours.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: Share market and real estate
Comment: I think the basic assumption about the impact of the baby boomers is correct, but where Harry went wrong is that he encapsulated the "message" by focusing exclusively on the sharemarket. If he had said that assets, viz average share prices and average property values, will quadruple by 2008, then he will probably be right. Unfortunately he said words to the effect that the Dow Jones will go from 10,000 to 40,000 by 2008. What he didn't properly explain was that in some years real estate will go up, and down, likewise the share market. Together, over the period 2000 - 2008, the combined value will quadruple. His thesis is correct; it was the catchphase that was wrong.

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