Binding: Paperback
Dewey Decimal Number: 003
EAN: 9780307275172
ISBN: 0307275175
Label: Vintage
Manufacturer: Vintage
Number Of Items: 1
Number Of Pages: 272
Publication Date: 2009-05-05
Publisher: Vintage
Release Date: 2009-05-05
Studio: Vintage

An intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives.

Successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear causes, when actually they are profoundly influenced by randomness and chance. Here, with the sense of narrative and imaginative approach of a storyteller, Leonard Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, corporate success, school grades, and political polls are less reliable than we believe. Showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow provides the tools we need for more informed decision making. From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
Amazon Guest Review: Stephen Hawking
Published in 1988, Stephen Hawking’s A Brief History of Time became perhaps one of the unlikeliest bestsellers in history: a not-so-dumbed-down exploration of physics and the universe that occupied the London Sunday Times bestseller list for 237 weeks. Later successes include 1995’s A Briefer History of Time, The Universe in a Nutshell, and God Created the Integers: The Mathematical Breakthroughs that Changed History. Stephen Hawking is Lucasian Professor of Mathematics at the University of Cambridge.

In The Drunkard’s Walk Leonard Mlodinow provides readers with a wonderfully readable guide to how the mathematical laws of randomness affect our lives. With insight he shows how the hallmarks of chance are apparent in the course of events all around us. The understanding of randomness has brought about profound changes in the way we view our surroundings, and our universe. I am pleased that Leonard has skillfully explained this important branch of mathematics. --Stephen Hawking

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Customer Rating:
Summary: Making sense out of the lottery of life
Comment: XXXXX

"I have tried in this book to present the basic concepts of randomness, to illustrate how they apply to human affairs, and to present my views that its effects are largely overlooked in our interpretations of events and in our expectations and decisions. It may come as an epiphany merely to recognize the ubiquitous role of random processes [including chance and uncertainty] in our lives; the true power of the theory of random processes, however, lies in the fact that once we understand the nature of random processes, we can alter the way we perceive the events that happen around us."

The above is found in this revealing, engaging, and readable book by Leonard Mlodinow, PhD (physics) who now teaches about randomness to future scientists at the California Institute of Technology. (He also co-authored with Dr. Stephen Hawking the book "A Briefer History of Time.")

This book's title comes from a mathematical term describing random motion (such as the paths molecules follow as they fly through space, bumping and being bumped by, their sister molecules).

All chapters are meant to lead up to the book' final chapter (that has the same title as the book's title). Generally, the beginning chapters look in a historical context at basic but important concepts in probability theory and statistical inference.

(Probability is a numerical value that measures, estimates, or predicts the degree of uncertainty in which an event will occur. Statistical inference {also called inductive statistics} deals with inferences about a population based on a sample {that is, based on limited data} of that population. Thus, the use of probability theory is important since it allows the sample maker {with only limited data about a certain population} to analyse the risk or uncertainty associated with making a decision about that population.)

Specifically, this book draws from many disciplines, from mathematics and the traditional sciences as well as cognitive psychology, behavioural economics, and modern neuroscience. It analyzes how the principles that govern chance impinge on politics, business, traditional medicine, economics, sports, leisure, and other human affair areas.

Included in the book are graphs and tables to help enhance understanding.

Finally, there are a few example problems in this book that require the use of basic mathematics. All example problems are solved by the author. I found some of these solutions difficult to follow and this is my only complaint. I feel that the solutions to these example problems could have been laid out better. Diagrams would also have been helpful in these solutions.

However, it is not essential to understand these solutions to grasp the main points of this book.

In conclusion, I estimate that any potential reader will be entertained and learn something from this illuminating book!!

(first published 2008; prologue; 10 chapters; main narrative 220 pages; acknowledgments; notes; index)

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Customer Rating:
Summary: Interesting, but an inconsistency
Comment: I'm sure most of the arguments made in the book are sound, but I must point out a paragraph in which he failed to remain consistent about his own argument. In chapter two, Mlodinow argues that many people would choose (A and B) to be more probable than (B), and that this is mathematically and logically impossible. However, on a paragraph on page 25 he then proceeds to argue how highly trained doctors make this mistake, and provides two choices given to them. Unfortunately, the choices offered were (A and B) vs (only B), not the previous (A and B) vs (B). His use of the word "only" equates to (B and ~A). (B and ~A) is certainly not always more probable than (A and B). For instance, if A is .90, and B is .11, then (A and B) = .90 * .11 = .099. (B and ~A) = .11 * (1-.90) = .011. .099 > .011, showing that in this case, (A and B) is more probable than (only B).

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Customer Rating:
Summary: a bit technical
Comment: This book is really interesting but is a bit more technical than I had anticipated. An Understanding of math is helpful.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: Skip if you took Stats in college
Comment: Some interesting anecdotes, nice historical notes and intriguing opening and closing chapters, but not worth the cost or the read if you've already studied statistics in at school.

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Customer Rating:
Summary: THIS IS AN OUTSTANDING BOOK
Comment: I own the audio version of this book and although I'm not much of a math guy I enjoyed it so much I had to buy the hard cover book to give to my father in law. He is an avid reader and loves math so I expect he will get a kick out of this. Read it or listen to it. This book will make you think. A very nice piece of work!

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